Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
